Industry situation complex seamless steel pipe overcapacity beyond imagination
Date:2018-12-26 View:601 Tag:Industry situation complex seamless steel pipe overcapacity beyond imagination
There are continuous policies in the near future. The current domestic economic development situation is characterized as “the whole is good”, which reflects the clear understanding and control of the overall economic situation by the central government. Economic growth "stable and progress" is still the government's control target, high inventory innovation, oversupply, sales pressure, and the seamless steel pipe market is difficult to rejuvenate. From the current situation of contradiction between supply and demand, some steel traders are worried that the seamless steel pipe plant "price reduction does not reduce the volume, let the price not let the city, price for sales" business philosophy, will intensify the contradiction between supply and demand in the steel pipe market . Recently, some seamless steel pipe factories producing steel pipes have lowered their ex-factory prices. The price policy of the leading steel pipes in East China in early March: “downgrade, replenishment” has become the mainstream, and some steel mills have replenished 100 yuan/ton in February. The price of the pan screw is lowered by 100 yuan/ton; some steel mills are down 50-150 yuan/ton, and the surplus in February is 100-150 yuan/ton. Another seamless steel pipe enterprise has just introduced the ex-factory price policy in mid-December, the rebar ex-factory price has been lowered by 250 yuan, and the replenishment of the December 20 contract for the 11- to December period is 200 yuan/ton. The move is mainly to attract steel traders to continue to order steel mills to ease the sales, inventory and capital pressure of seamless steel pipe manufacturers.
China seamless pipe network series report: With the advent of the global economic era and the demand for high quality seamless steel pipe products in the domestic market, promoting industrial technology upgrade has become an inevitable requirement of China's seamless steel pipe industry. In this context, some seamless steel pipe manufacturers have embarked on the road of transformation and upgrading. Among them, promoting the integration of seamless steel pipe industry and mobile Internet has become the hottest topic. Seamless steel pipe is an economical section steel that is widely used in crude oil extraction and processing, pipeline transportation, machinery manufacturing, boiler manufacturing, and construction of large venues. Affected by the surge in international crude oil prices and the rapid development of China's national economy, the demand for seamless steel pipes in the domestic market has rapidly increased and the quality requirements have become higher and higher. With the increase of production and the improvement of quality, the seamless steel pipe produced in China has become one of the steel products with certain competition in the international seamless steel pipe market. However, compared with the developed countries in the West, there are still many problems in the production of seamless steel pipes in China. At present, there are no conditions for the production of seamless steel pipes. First, the structural adjustment of seamless steel pipe equipment in China is seriously lagging behind, and the proportion of backward equipment is high. Secondly, the concentration of seamless steel pipe production enterprises in China is not high. Once again, advanced and complete steelmaking, refining, continuous casting, rolling, finishing and deep processing The production capacity of seamless steel pipe production system is not high. Finally, equipment technology innovation and product development are not enough. In this context, some seamless steel pipe manufacturers have embarked on the road of transformation and upgrading. Among them, promoting the integration of seamless steel pipe industry and mobile Internet has become the hottest topic. For the integration development of the seamless steel pipe industry and the mobile Internet, the advantage of the open platform of the mobile Internet has created conditions for the seamless steel pipe production enterprises to carry out technical exchanges in the industry. By entering the mobile Internet, seamless steel pipe production enterprises can realize the sharing of technical resources, thereby Promote the improvement of the overall technical level of the seamless steel pipe industry in China. China's seamless steel pipe production industry is dominated by small and medium-sized enterprises. The production technology of high-quality seamless steel pipe is in the hands of a few leading enterprises. However, as long as the development of the seamless steel pipe industry is realized, it can form a leading enterprise to drive the development of small and medium-sized enterprises. In the situation, SMEs draw on the advanced production processes and technologies of leading enterprises. As far as China's seamless steel pipe production situation is concerned, it is imperative to promote industrial technology upgrade, and the rise of mobile Internet has created conditions for promoting the improvement of the overall technical level of the industry. Therefore, domestic seamless steel pipe production enterprises should accelerate integration with the mobile Internet industry. The pace of development is to improve the level of their own technology and prepare for the upcoming global competition. The daily output was 2.208 million tons, an increase of 7. 6%, an increase of 9.8% year-on-year. The daily crude steel output in June was the highest level in history, an increase of 9.4% from last year's high (2.019 million tons). In the first two months of this year, the country's cumulative production of crude steel was 125.45 million tons, an increase of 10.6% year-on-year, with an average daily output of 2,216,300 tons, the highest level in history. The contradiction between market supply and demand has intensified, and seamless steel pipe enterprises should increase production control. The strength. The accelerated release of production capacity of seamless steel pipe enterprises will undoubtedly continue to intensify the contradiction between supply and demand in the market and increase sales pressure. So the policy level next year is still expected. Moreover, the recent booming stock market has also given the futures market a certain support.
The domestic social inventory of seamless steel pipes totaled 3,856,700 tons, the lowest level since 2018. This may be due to the tight funding of traders, and the fact that traders are reluctant to stock up because of the low price of seamless steel pipes. However, as time goes into June, the traditional winter storage is about to begin, and with the inventory at a low level, the market is expected to usher in a wave of replenishment peaks. Moreover, from the perspective of historical stocks, the market will usher in a wave of replenishment peaks. The social inventory of seamless steel pipes will accumulate rapidly in December and January, and will grow to a one-year high. Therefore, we expect that the upcoming replenishment demand will have some support for the price of seamless steel pipe.
China's seamless pipe network series report: From the demand level, snowfall has generally started in the north, and the south has cooled down in a large area. From the time of rapid economic development to the present, forcing real estate developers to reduce new development projects and projects under construction. The lack of work is on the verge of loss, resulting in a significant reduction in demand for building materials and pipe steel. In order to "stable growth", the relevant people think that China should introduce some favorable economic growth regulations in a timely manner, and the new urbanization plan will be released in the next six months, which will drive the development of a large number of industries, and will also usher in the steel market. Will rebound against the trend. "
Today's steel business, the most difficult thing is the simple middlemen. Because there is no demand, it is difficult. The long-term depressed alloy steel pipe market has caused losses to Yingdong. Due to this, the supply pressure of the steel market has increased and the current price has been lowered. The situation of oversupply is increasingly bulging;
secondly, China’s adjustment of macroeconomic regulations is persistent and economic growth is slowing down. The slowdown in economic growth has directly affected the effective demand for steel in accordance with the international situation of increasing investment scale. ;
the third is China strictly controls the prices, effectively restrain the overheated real estate market.
At the same time, the international steel market price continued to rise weak consolidation, which is conducive to China's steel exports in spite of the growing number of favorable factors, but China Iron and steel Association Maybe steady. As the production capacity of seamless steel pipes in China continues to increase and release, the contradiction between oversupply in the steel market has become increasingly prominent.
At the same time that steel production capacity is growing too fast, the largest source of seamless steel pipe, low industrial concentration and product structure imbalance also exacerbate the contradiction between supply and demand in the Chinese market, which will cause fluctuations in steel prices. Therefore, the construction of the construction site has been greatly reduced, and the consumption demand for seamless steel pipes has been relatively light. However, with the support of various policies in the near future, the real estate market has obvious signs of warming up. The market still has certain expectations for the traditional peak season after the Spring Festival, and the futures market may react in advance. The pressure on supply is not that great. According to the latest data of China Steel Association, the average daily crude steel output of domestic key steel enterprises in the middle of June was 1,642,100 tons, which is basically the lowest level since this year.