From the overall operation of the steel circulation industry in February, the main steel thick-walled steel pipe market has recovered after the holiday , the downstream orders have increased, the terminal demand has improved, the sales volume of steel trade enterprises has increased, and the steel circulation market activity has increased. From the perspective of supply, in February 2016, the average daily output of crude steel in the key steel enterprises of the China Iron and Steel Association was 1,558,600 tons, which was an increase of 30,200 tons compared with the average daily output of crude steel in January. According to a rough estimate of Lange Steel, the daily output of crude steel increased in February, and since it was only 29 days in February, the crude steel output in February will drop by about 61 million tons.
From the demand side, with the warming of the temperature, the terminal demand will gradually start, but after the holiday, most construction sites and steel trade enterprises will start construction after the first month of the 15th, so the steel market demand will improve in March, but There will be no obvious release. However, due to the introduction of a series of favorable policies such as de-capacity and destocking before and after the Spring Festival, steel trade enterprises have a strong bullish attitude towards the market outlook and a strong purchasing willingness. Therefore, the market demand in March has entered the boom zone as a whole.
Last week, the price of thick-walled steel pipes continued to rise. At the beginning of last week, the market and the stock market rose strongly. Iron ore and hot-rolled futures received the daily limit, and rebar futures also forced the daily limit. In addition, under the support of lower inventory, the price of domestic major steel thick-walled steel pipes continued. rise. The price of Tangshan billet rushed to 1720-1730 yuan, which was nearly 200 yuan before the Spring Festival. The lock price of steel mills in Wu'an area reached 2080 yuan, up 280 yuan before the Spring Festival, and 260 yuan in the plate. The price of Tianjin hot coils has risen by 130 yuan, and the price of Beijing thick-walled steel pipes has risen by 120 yuan. Near the weekend last week, due to the price correction of Tangshan billet and the weakening of the period, the steel market showed a relatively quick correction, while the main steel thick-walled steel pipes with relatively small increase in the previous period continued to rise. "Now the country is high-profile steel to capacity, hot discussion on steel supply side reform, some investors are also speculating on this subject, hoping to reverse the oversupply situation of the main steel thick-walled steel pipe market, and promote the price of major steel thick-walled steel pipes in the country The rebound and industry benefits have improved significantly, but it is not easy to compress steel production capacity.” Chen Kexin expects that the production of China's major steel thick-walled steel pipes will be difficult to reduce significantly in 2016, possibly more than the previous year. In the previous period, the growth rate of China's major steel thick-walled steel pipe production slowed down, mainly due to the excessive price drop, which caused serious losses for steel companies. As the price of major steel thick-walled steel pipes rebounds, some enterprises will improve their profits and steel production will increase, which will bring supply pressure.
Chen Kexin also pointed out that the Fed’s interest rate hike will also put pressure on the steel market. If the US economy resumes, the Fed raises interest rates, funds from emerging economies continue to flow out, the national currency of commodity resources depreciates, and the US dollar index rises, putting pressure on China's major steel thick-walled steel pipe market.
Lu Huaying, an analyst at Lange Steel Research Center, said that the steel market's rising after the Spring Festival mainly benefited from the shortage of resources in the finished products market in various regions, out of stock and extremely low inventory advantages, while the period of the market rose and the RMB after the Spring Festival. The strength has become an external force that boosts the price of thick-walled steel pipes.
Although faced with the buyer's staged high fears and suspended purchases, the general manager of Lange Steel Network Information Ma Li said: "Before the middle of March, the price of domestic major steel thick-walled steel pipes will continue to rise, during the period does not rule out the price, The possibility of a sharp rise."
Recently, a series of preferential policies have been introduced. The national real estate market, especially in the real estate market in first-tier cities, has seen a rise in volume and price, and high stocks have begun to digest. The industry expects that the follow-up real estate stimulus policy is expected to continue to be introduced, such as the reform of the household registration policy, the comprehensive integration of migrant workers into the provident fund system, the acceleration of the citizenization of migrant workers, the promotion of housing enterprises to enter the housing rental market, and the establishment of a housing system for both rent and rent. The series of positive stimulus is expected to accelerate the real estate destocking, and the real estate funds will be accelerated in the future, thus promoting the recovery of real estate investment and increasing the demand for the main steel thick-walled steel pipes entering the real estate construction.
Wang Guoqing, director of the Lange Iron and Steel Research Center, told the China Securities Journal: “The real estate destocking process has little impact on the steel industry, because the destocking is basically the stock of built houses. If the real estate destocking effect is obvious, destocking It may increase investment and benefit the steel industry. However, this process is relatively long and takes at least two to three years."
“What needs to be seen is that the suppression factor of China's major steel thick-walled steel pipe market still exists.” Chen Kexin, chief analyst of Lange Steel Economic Research Center, said that first of all, the export volume of China's major steel thick-walled steel pipes has increased significantly for several consecutive years. Statistics show that from 2013 to 2015, the export growth of major steel thick-walled steel pipes was 11.9%, 50.5% and 19.9% respectively. Especially in 2015, the country's major steel thick-walled steel pipe exports exceeded 100 million tons for the first time, reaching 112.4 million tons, digesting nearly 15% of domestic crude steel statistical output during the same period. It is expected that the export volume of China's major steel thick-walled steel pipes will not increase significantly in 2016, and the overall export level will drop significantly, and even the absolute number will decline.
Especificación de tamaño de tubería de acero soldada eléctricamente de gran diámetro
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