Worldsteel released its forecast of short-term steel demand in 2017 and 2018. WFS reports that global steel demand will increase by 1.3% in 2017 to 1,535.2 million tons. It is estimated that global steel demand will increase 0.9% by 2018 to reach 1.5485 billion tons. The demand for steel will rise cyclically in 2017 and 2018, advanced economies will continue the recovery process, while the emerging and developing economies will see accelerated growth. China accounts for 45% of the global steel demand.
According to the data center: Shandong Liaocheng
seamless pipe 219 * 6, from December 2016 4130 yuan / ton in November 2017 to 5350 yuan / ton, the cumulative increase of up to 1220 yuan / ton, Linyi Seamless 57 * 3.5, a cumulative increase of up to 1,460 yuan / ton from 3,990 yuan / tonne in December 2016 to 5,450 yuan / ton in November 2017; 4-inch * 3.75 in Tianjin pipe, from 3,280 yuan / Ton, up to 4410 yuan / ton in November 2017, with a total increase of 1130 yuan / ton, and a 1-inch * 3.0 pipe of welded pipe in Tangshan from 3,320 yuan / ton in December 2016 to 4,510 yuan / ton in November 2017 , A total increase of up to 1190 yuan / ton. On the basis of the relatively strong steel industry in 2016, the steel pipe industry continued its upswing in 2017 with remarkable performance. First, as environmental protection went out of control, more and more finished pipe mills were discontinued and the production was limited. The inventory reduction, Promote the pipe factory constantly rising. Second, although the downstream industry does not have much positive impact on the steel pipe, but the upstream raw material stamina, the cost of "water up" under the premise of the market price of finished steel pipe should naturally be "high." Overall, the general trend of 2017 is the previous contraction, slightly less than the curve upward, the middle was significantly high and volatile; 4-June relatively prominent, July-September partial weakness. Beginning of the year insipid, back more than late.
Through these two years, the steel pipe industry, the cumulative market price rose as much as 1,500-2800 yuan / ton, from 2000-3000 yuan / ton before 2016, violently rose to 4000-6000 yuan / ton, one can imagine the speed Still amazing. However, the high level of the industry did not continue to open. The downturn of the real estate industry and the retrenchment of investment in infrastructure construction and the cautious macroeconomic stimulation all inhibited the progress of the steel pipe to a certain extent. For 2018, to maintain the high level of 2017 is already a success. If we want to brush the record again, we will not only need to make changes in our own industries but will also need the impetus from the external environment.
First: the macro-side. "2018 macro will continue the policy of steady progress, micro-stimulation, targeted stimulation will be the main line; In addition, we also firmly believe that GDP will remain 6.7-6.8%, and then further down the difficulty Are very large.So from a macro perspective only, the entire steel industry has little effect; the continuation of the influence of 2017 is sufficient.
Second: demand side. In 2018, I am afraid the entire demand side will be still very weak. The first and foremost is real estate. The real estate industry can hardly conceal the slump. Next year may be the critical period of accelerating declines in housing prices and investment. Therefore, do not expect too much for real estate. Of course, the construction of the Xiong'an New Zone may be a bit of a boost to the steel industry. Although it takes time to test, at least some good news will be released. As for the long-term nature, it is still too early. As for machinery, infrastructure and so difficult to bring huge extra space for consumption. Overall, the demand side 2018 want to qualitative change, I am afraid the plight.
Third: Environmental policy surface. Since 2016, when the environment has been vigorously and vigorously enforced, 2017 is a step by step upgrade. As the environmental protection has become accustomed to, the effect it produces has dropped sharply day by day. Although the annual elimination of production capacity, production targets are over-done, but from the stock, supply point of view, it seems that there is not a large area of inhibition. From the span point of view, the environmental policy is expected to be extended to 2020, if the pipe industry in 2018 to another record high, just by environmental protection, I am afraid it will only be whimsical; the most crucial thing is that both supply and demand balance, energy Whether to make a substantive breakthrough is the key point.
