Slow inventory decline Shandong No. 20 small-caliber seamless steel pipe price rebound expected to f

The steel market last week was running at 4,300 yuan / ton, depending on the variety. A slight rebound in the third consecutive day, a half weeks after the 20th seamless steel pipe but still slightly lower than the previous week. The industry's comprehensive steel price index shows that the absolute price index of the industry on June 1 was 4267.3 yuan / ton, down 4.7 yuan / ton from the previous week, the decline was significantly narrowed. At the beginning of the week, the international market was relatively calm, and the steel market continued its previous inertia decline. The iron ore market was more active last week. The price of seamless steel pipe on the 20th of the week rebounded for the first time since April, and the price rebound was mainly in the second half. According to the iron ore price index, the domestic iron ore comprehensive trading price on June 1 was 1015.5 yuan / ton, and the seamless steel pipe No. 20 rebounded 3.4 yuan / ton from the previous week. For the first time since April 5, the week-on-week has risen.


Similar to the rebound in the steel market, positive expectations are an important factor in the market. At the same time, the large rebound in the seamless steel pipe market in the 20th also directly promoted the active iron ore market. Last week, Tangshan billet bottomed out and rose by 50 yuan/ton from Monday to Wednesday. Domestic steel mills have also resold iron ore in stages because of the need to replenish the warehouse. The two platforms of the spot trading platform in Beijing and Singapore also showed a rise in volume and price. The tender volume of the iron ore futures market declined, and the price of seamless steel pipe on the 20th also climbed. The iron ore market is showing a full-scale rebound. However, the market cautious mentality still occupies a majority, after all, the current transaction is still limited, and the continuation is still difficult to determine. Steel inertia fell Iron ore turnover was active for 15 consecutive weeks, decline in demand growth is still slow According to inventory statistics, as of the end of May, the country's 29 major rural steel social stocks will continue to decline for 15 weeks, surpassing last year's continuous decline of 13 weeks. With the domestic coverage of the soothing policy overweight frequently presented, the favorable trend of the seamless steel pipe market in the 20th is increasing day by day, and the mentality of the steel market is gradually improved. As economic data deteriorates further, the market is expected to strengthen easing policies such as interest rate cuts, which may become a new support for the steel spot market. Raw materials such as steel billets and iron ore took the lead in rebounding. The seamless steel pipe of No. 20 reacted faster with the corresponding rebar and narrow belt, and the price of many places rebounded.


However, during the rebound in market prices, the transaction was still not good. The downstream demand for steel has not improved significantly. The manufacturing PMI data released last Friday also shows that the demand for steel in the later period is difficult to be optimistic. Statistics show that as of May 25, 2012, the social stocks of 29 major rural households in the country were 8,882,900 tons, down 369,100 tons from last week, and this week is still in a downward trend. The total social inventory of seamless steel pipe on the 20th is also less than 16 million tons for the first time since February this year. The current inventory has dropped 16.9% from the highest point, but the decline is still the lowest in the calendar year. Analysts said that the decline in inventory indicates that there is still a certain amount of rigid demand, but the rate of demand growth is slow, the rate of inventory decline is slow, and the market mentality is poor, thus causing prices to fall. Steel traders are more optimistic about the late trend of the goods. Some analysts believe that the decline in inventory is related to the peak demand of the market. Although the current seamless steel pipe market is still weak, the demand still leads to steel. Social stocks continue to decline; on the other hand, it has a lot to do with the transformation of steel traders' operation mode. No. 20 seamless steel pipe is now a lot of steel traders are not willing to inventory, using low inventory or even zero inventory, there are orders and then Steel mill orders are sent directly to users.


However, the continuous decline in inventory is not just due to rising demand. No. 20 seamless steel pipe mills have more diversions, and there is a large part of the goods directly sent to the end users, the business of the business is affected. Therefore, the impact of inventory changes on the steel market outlook is also very small and the inventory has been reduced for 15 consecutive weeks, but the total inventory is still at a high level over the years, only the steel mills will stop production will be real destocking. At present, steel mills are still producing at full capacity, and it is difficult to change in a short period of time. If there are no big positive factors, steel prices may continue to decline. For the development of the market outlook, the industry has their own opinions. Some analysts believe that the single indicator from the inventory decline, can not see the trend of the market outlook, can only say that the decline in the number 20 seamless steel pipe inventory is a positive factor for the market outlook. The potential supply and demand conflict in the steel market is still serious. At present, demand is still not matched with production. No. 20 seamless steel pipe is expected to further stimulate steel demand after the introduction of relevant national policies. Therefore, the current steel prices may have a certain improvement after the policy is clear. Some experts believe that the recent weakness of the steel market is difficult to change. On the one hand, the uncertainty of changes in the political situation in the periphery of Europe has increased, which has had a certain impact on the domestic steel market; on the other hand, the durable decline in steel prices has caused steel mills to fall into a comprehensive loss situation.