Can the double focus be improved at the end of the heating season?

 In general, with the end of the "two sessions", the domestic coking coal production will be gradually released in the later period, but the coking coal stocks of steel mills and coking plants are not at a relatively low level, and the focus enterprises in Hebei and Shanxi have environmental protection limits. Behavior, therefore, coking coal demand will not increase significantly until black terminal demand has not increased significantly. In addition, the current profit of steel mills is on the verge of profit and loss, and the reduction of profits has been transmitted to the coking plant. Once the supply of coking coal is loose, the coking plant will maintain profits by suppressing the price of coking coal.


　　Overall, the coke situation is not very optimistic. First, some regions have tightened their environmental protection and production policies in the past few days, and the blast furnace operating rate is low, which makes the coke inventory of coking plants and steel mills at a high level. The factory generally relies on reducing inventory and restricts the quantity of goods. The rigid demand for coke appears to be weak. Second, the inventory of steel in the downstream steel mills is at a high level. Even if the terminal demand is gradually starting, the steel mills are temporarily There is no significant increase in production plans, and the demand for downstream coke is not large. However, after the first round of coke price reduction was basically implemented, the profit of the coking plant has been sharply reduced. The resistance to implement the second round of increase is relatively strong. If the price of coking coal moves down later, coke may still be loose.
　　With the end of the heating season and the warming of the weather, the demand for the black industry chain has gradually started. However, from the current terminal data, the demand is obviously less than expected. At this stage, the entire black industry chain has not shown any significant signs of significant increase. In the early stage of coking coal, due to the safety inspection and the influence of the "two sessions", coal mines in some areas have not yet fully resumed production, and the import coal restriction policy is not relaxed. Therefore, the supply of coking coal has been in a tight state since the beginning of the year, with the "two sessions" At the end of the resumption of coal mine production, it is expected that the state of tight coking coal supply will be eased. On the coke side, the situation is not optimistic. Since the coke was lowered by 100 yuan/ton last week, the coking plant profit has been greatly reduced. The blast furnace operation in some areas of Hebei and Shanxi is limited, which makes the coke demand weak and demand from the black terminal. Look, the current terminal demand is not as expected, steel mill profits are difficult to quickly expand, the overall demand side temporarily do not see the momentum of continued price increases, it is expected that by the end of March, coke overall supply surplus situation. (Focus on "Big Internal Reference", don't miss every research report selection!)