The downstream demand improvement is limited, and the pessimistic attitude of the stainless steel ma
Date:2019-07-24 View:719 Tag:The downstream demand improvement is limited, and the pessimistic attitude of the stainless steel ma
Recently, the futures have fallen, and domestic steel prices have continued to weaken, which has made the market mentality pessimistic. In terms of downstream demand, after half a year of hard work, the degree of improvement is still limited, but the production enthusiasm of steel mills is not diminished. In this situation, the future of the steel market is rampant.
Recently, the downstream has encountered a roadblock in terms of new construction projects. According to the news, since the beginning of July and August, the railway construction season has begun, but there are not many new projects recently started. Relevant authoritative experts said in an interview that only 64 of the 64 new construction projects approved the feasibility study report. At present, the railway has completed less than 300 billion yuan of investment, and the investment target of 800 billion yuan is still very large. gap.
"One is whether the funds can be implemented on the project; the second is whether the procedures for the newly started projects can be completed as soon as possible. Now there are probably less than 20 approved projects for the 64 new projects. Many projects have even approved the land pre-trial and environmental assessment. Wang Mengshu, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, told the reporters that although the enthusiasm for railway construction from the central to the local, the railway and the outside world is very high, there are many approval procedures for the construction of railway projects, from project approval, land pre-trial, environmental assessment, The feasibility study and the approval of the start-up report involve multiple departments and a long period of time. This may be the biggest obstacle to achieving the 800 billion target.
This really surprised the author. According to this year's policy, in order to stimulate the economy, there should be many favorable policies. How can we encounter a roadblock? It seems that we can only blame too many levels, and the approval is too difficult and difficult.
The current downstream demand can be improved to a very limited extent, and the upstream steel mills are still in normal production or even full-load production due to profit, and the contradiction between supply and demand will become more acute. 3,000 yuan / ton is an important psychological price for the industry, one of the reasons is that in the 2008 financial crisis, it did not fall below 3,000 yuan / ton. The current rebar price has fallen to its lowest point since January 2002, and the price has returned to 12 years ago, which can be described as “before returning to liberation”.
When will the steel price stabilize? The key is really to see when the steel mills cut production. However, according to the latest statistics of China Iron and Steel Association, the daily output of crude steel of key enterprises in mid-August was 1,829,500 tons, an increase of 0.96 million tons, up 0.53% from the previous month. At the same time, the data also showed that the inventory of key steel enterprises in the middle of August was 15.251 million tons, up 682,200 tons from the end of the previous year, up 4.68% from the previous year. On the one hand, the output increased, on the one hand, the consumption shrinked, it seems that domestic steel The market oversupply situation can only be more obvious.
Not only that, in terms of raw materials, the recent raw material prices have continued to weaken, which makes steel prices even worse. The news shows that as of the 27th, the steel billet market marked Tangshan fell by 10. The iron ore market is also weak. In terms of the Platts Index, the general index fell by 0.75 US dollars yesterday, and the current 62% Australian powder index is 88 US dollars / ton. In August, thermal oil, iron ore, natural rubber and other large declines in the previous period all showed a phenomenon of “bottoming out”. Once crude oil prices continued to fall in the later period, the leading varieties of bulk commodities will undoubtedly bring to the overall commodity market. influences.
On the whole, the current steel industry is in a quagmire. It seems that the recent steel prices are not rising, and the desire to stop falling is hard to come by. The business mentality can only be pessimistic and wait and see.