Q345 channel steel will increase its fiscal policy while maintaining a loose monetary policy

High-quality resources are tight and the price is high. Some mines have increased mine use, mine sales are better, traders are more active, and small and medium-sized mines are starting to improve slightly. However, most mines are still not satisfied with the current sales price. Under the premise of not having too much financing cost, the enthusiasm for returning to work is not high. Imported mines have recently been weak, and the mines have no suitable price hikes for the time being. Therefore, it is expected that the price of Shandong domestically produced ore will be stable this week.
 Yesterday, steel prices were still weak, and the market opened after the holidays. Traders had intended to wait and see, and steel mills continued to cut the ex-factory prices. In desperation, traders had to keep down, but the declines were mixed. Strong, leading to a lower price. The author believes that the N80 oil casing demand is difficult to boost in the short term, and today steel prices continue to be weakly adjusted. Steel prices can only continue to fall when demand is difficult to improve at all. At present, only the steel mills have enough production to save the current weak market. The investigation found that the steel mill's production reduction efforts did not meet expectations, indicating that the steel market is difficult to change the weak situation in the near future. Overall, most steel mills are still hesitant to cut production. In order to maintain the stability of cash flow and market share, the overall demand for production reduction is still cautious. In particular, the operating rate of steel mills in Hebei and Jiangsu provinces where major domestic steel companies are concentrated is still at a high level. This also makes the recent news of the reduction of production and the upcoming production cuts, but the actual production cuts are still weaker than expected, and the domestic market supply pressure has not slowed down significantly. In the same month, China's iron ore raw ore production was 118 million tons, down 9.9% year-on-year, and the decline was narrowed by 6 percentage points from the previous month. However, the balance of supply and demand in the iron ore market is relatively fragile, and there is a downward pressure on imported mineral prices in the later period, which has limited support for steel prices. On the one hand, due to the weakening of mines and strong steel, the losses of steel mills have expanded, especially the small and medium-sized steel mills that lack their own mines have continued to reduce production, resulting in insufficient demand for imported minerals. In order to guide the risk-free interest rate to continue to decline, the bottoming economy grew, and the late monetary policy or neutrality was loose. At the same time, as the marginal benefits continue to decrease and the level of losses deepens, the probability of domestic centralized maintenance and production reduction is also increasing. Steel prices are likely to rebound in the third quarter due to the ease of supply and demand pressure. Last week, high-temperature, heavy rain and other off-season characteristics were significantly enhanced, demand accelerated shrinking, while steel mills repaired production is still relatively small, supply and demand conflicts intensified, at the same time, the market pressure on the market in the next tense, pessimism spread, merchants cut prices, steel billets Downgrade, the main screw fell. On the macro level, the latest HSBC manufacturing PMI data in June rose to a three-month high, and the country's reform, stimulus and other steady growth efforts continue to increase, Q345 channel steel will increase the fiscal policy while maintaining a loose monetary policy.