Iron ore as raw material end in the third quarter is affected by environmental restrictions on production, demand is limited, but due to sea freight greatly increased and the depreciation of the RMB, its spot price in 500-600 yuan / ton oscillating operation. As of October 11, 61.5% of Australia's PB wet-based duty-bearing vehicle plates in Qingdao Port were priced at 530 yuan / ton and the iron ore index (62%) was $70.05 per ton.
Steel mills have high profits.
According to agency statistics, pig iron production in August 2018 was 66.655 million tons, a decrease of 960,000 tons, or 1.3 percent, compared with July. According to this estimate, pig iron production in September was 65.086 million tons, a decrease of 849,000 tons compared with the previous month. In the three quarter, the cumulative output of pig iron was 227 million 373 thousand tons, a decrease of 10 million 648 thousand tons compared with the same period, an increase of 6 million 931 thousand tons compared with the same period last year. As of September 28, the blast furnace operation rate of 163 steel plants in China was 68.09%, which was 3.18 percentage points lower than that at the end of the second quarter. As of October 11, the spot price of Shanghai grade III rebar was 4,590 yuan / ton, up 530 yuan / ton from the end of June. At present, the profit trend of rebar production in steel mills is upward and high.
From the data point of view, the construction project investment in 2018 cumulative year-on-year negative growth, the growth rate began to pick up after July. Infrastructure investment growth is also on the downward trend, the policy shift to infrastructure to fill the shortage board, the full-bore infrastructure investment growth rate continued to decline may be eased.
Foreign ore supply is expected to increase
According to the quarterly data, the output of the four major mines in the first two quarters of this year increased by 2.15% compared with the same period last year. According to the production characteristics of the previous year, the output in the third and fourth quarters will be higher than the first and second quarters. Therefore, it can be estimated that the total output of the four major mines in 2018 will still maintain a year-on-year growth momentum. As of September 30, Australia shipped 12.515 million tons of iron ore to China, down 3.258 million tons from the end of June. Overall, the third quarter of iron ore ore supply has decreased, according to the previous year's Australian mine shipment law, is expected to pick up shipments in the fourth quarter.
From the inventory data, up to September 28, domestic large and medium-sized steel mills imported iron ore available for an average of 25.5 days, a day lower than the end of June, the third quarter has remained basically stable. By October 12, iron ore stocks at major ports in China were 14.35 million tons, 12.261 million tons less than at the end of June, 11.7518 million tons more than at the same time last year. Port stocks were at a new low in the year, but still higher than at the same time last year. In the four quarter, with the increase in the output of the four major mines, the port iron ore inventory is expected to rebound.
Overall, investment in real estate construction projects has shown a negative growth year-on-year. Since July, the growth rate has picked up slightly, and investment in infrastructure has maintained a downward trend. However, the state vigorously advocates capital construction to supplement the shortcomings. It is expected that capital construction investment will end the downward trend at the beginning of the fourth quarter, or to a certain extent, to stimulate the demand for steel, thus stabbing. Mine price.
From the perspective of environmental policy trends, this autumn and winter production restriction is no longer "one-size-fits-all". The proportion of production restriction is cancelled and air quality indicators are lowered. But this year the production restriction area has increased in the Fenwei Plain and the Yangtze River Delta region, and the specific production situation still needs to pay attention to the air quality of these regions.
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