International steel market is adjusting downward trend

The international steel market in June rose first. At the end of the month, the 124.1-point global steel benchmark price index fell by 0.2% on a week-to-week basis (from a rise to a drop). Among them: flat steel index 117.5 points, a week-on-week decline of 0.4% (from rising to down); long products index of 131.5, week-weekly quarter; Asian index 130.1% points, week-on-week down 0.6% (from rising to down). The China index in Asia was 133.9 points, down by 0.7% on a week-to-week basis (from a rise to a drop); the Americas index was 137.8 points, unchanged from last week; the European index was 105.1 points, up 0.4% on a week-to-week basis. Based on the market situation and the fundamental situation forecast, the international steel market in July may continue to decline.
Global crude steel production in May increased by 6.6% year-on-year. According to data from the International Steel Association, in May of this year, the world’s 64 crude steel production counted in the statistics of the World Iron and Steel Institute was 154.9 million tons, an increase of 6.6% year-on-year and an increase of 9.62 million tons of output; the utilization rate of crude steel in the month of May was 77.7%. The year-on-year increase of 4.2 percentage points was a 1.0 percentage point quarter-over-quarter increase. From January to May, the global crude steel output was 729.2 million tons, an increase of 4.3% year-on-year and an increase of 29.96 million tons of crude steel production.
The EU will implement temporary trade safeguard measures. EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrm stated at the weekly press conference that the EU may start interim trade safeguard measures in mid-July. According to the industry, the European Iron and Steel Industry Alliance has asked EU member states to adopt a quarterly quota mechanism for imports according to the country, and imposes a uniform import tariff of 25% on products that exceed the quota.
Asian steel market: mixed. The benchmark steel price index for the region at 130.1 points fell by 0.6% (down from a rise) on a week-to-week basis. It was flat on a month-on-month basis and was up 23.9% year-on-year.
In terms of flat products, market prices have risen and fell. In Japan, the Tokyo market was priced at 698 U.S. dollars per ton, cold rolled at 780 U.S. dollars per ton, and medium plate at 753 U.S. dollars per ton, down by 3 dollars, 6 dollars, and 5 dollars, respectively. Export prices for hot coils were reported at US$630/tonne (FOB), cold coils at US$730/tonne (FOB), galvanized sheets at US$810/ton, and plate at US$680/tonne (FOB), which were roughly the same as before. In the United Arab Emirates, after the Eid holiday, some UAE traders returned to the market. However, due to the weak demand in the summer, most of the quotations expected from China will decline, so most of the purchases are postponed, resulting in a temporary weak market. At present, the reference price for UAE HRC imported CFR remains at US$590-625/t. Some market participants believe that the CFR price at $600/tonne is an operable price. At the same time, the reference price for imported CFR cold rolled coils in the United Arab Emirates is US$670-680/t. The hot-dip galvanized coil import CFR reference price is 780-840 US dollars / ton, and it remains basically unchanged. In late June, the average export price of China's SS400 3-12mm hot rolled coil was US$610/tonne (FOB), up by US$10/ton from the beginning of the month. The average export price of SPCC 1.0mm cold-rolled coils was US$645/ton, which was US$5/ton higher than before. The DX51D+Z 1.0mm galvanized coil exported 700 US dollars/ton (FOB), which was the same as the beginning of the month. At the end of the month, the price of hot-rolled Southeast Asia was US$618/tonne (CFR), up by US$3/ton.
For long products: market prices are mixed. In Japan, the average price of rebar in the Tokyo market was US$626/ton, and small-sized steel was US$734/ton, down by US$5/ton and US$7/ton respectively. The export price of small section steel is 550 US dollars / ton (F0B), which is the same as before. In addition, on June 18, after a magnitude 6.1 earthquake in the Kansai area around Osaka, Japanese steel producers with steel mills in the affected areas said after the investigation that no damage was caused to the steel mill. Tokyo Steel also announced that it will maintain its domestic steel product list prices unchanged in July and wait patiently for further increases in steel market prices. Some analysts said that this means that the company's SS400 large H-beam prices in July will remain at 89,000 yen / metric ton ($ 806 / ton / metric ton), and SPHC 1.7-22 mm HRC prices will remain at 74,000 days RMB/metric ton (US$670/tonne/metric ton), it should be said that the factors of price increase continue to exist. In India, JSW Steel stated on the 20th that it plans to increase the steel production capacity of JSW Vijayawada Steel in Karnataka to 13 million metric tons/year by March 2020. The company’s relevant sources also stated that the planned capacity will increase by approximately 8.3% over the current 12 million metric tons/year of existing capacity. In the second half of June, the average export price of HRB400 20mm rebar in China was US$555/tonne (FOB), which was US$5/ton higher than before.
In terms of trade relations: On June 15th, the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China issued Notice No. 52 of 2018, deciding that the investigation of the initiation of anti-dumping measures against imported high-temperature pressure-bearing alloy steel seamless pipes originating in the United States and the European Union shall start immediately. 2) Pakistan decides to impose anti-dumping duties of 5.36%-14.24% for five years on color-coated coils (PPGI) imported from China and South Africa.
Brief survey: Based on the fundamental situation in the Asian market, the Asian steel market in July is expected to continue to rise and fall.
European steel market: ups and downs. The benchmark steel price index of 105.1 in the region rose by 0.4% (from rising to low) on a week-to-week basis and fell by 2.6% (convergence) on a month-to-month basis, which was a year-on-year increase of 2.5%.
In terms of flat products: market prices have risen and fallen. In the European Union, the price of hot-rolled coils was 655 US dollars/ton, and that of cold-rolled coils was US$735/ton, which was the same as last month. EU hot rolled coil import price of 620 US dollars / ton (CFR), cold rolled coil import price of 718 US dollars / ton (CFR), galvanized sheet coil 759 US dollars / ton, plate 678 US dollars / ton, down from last month 6-12 US dollars / ton. In Turkey, the price of coated coils continues to rise. A producer in northern Turkey raised the price of coated coils by $10-15/ton. The current 0.50 mm hot dip galvanized coil is priced at US$775/ton. Due to the rising prices of hot rolled coils, industry insiders predict that the price of hot-dip galvanized coils will further increase in the later period. At the same time, the ex-factory prices of PPMM or color-coated steel coils (colored 9002) from northern Turkish producers have also increased from 850 US dollars/ton to 860 US$/ton. Market analysts said that due to the presidential election, the demand for coated coils in Turkey has temporarily eased, but the market's uncertainty has also increased. In Italy, the price uncertainty in the domestic and international markets has caused the Italian coil market to be relatively deserted. Sources said that the EU Steel Association suggested that the implementation of safeguard measures in the EU will have a direct impact on prices, the next few weeks, European steel mills may announce price increases. Some people even pointed out that the growth rate of hot-dip galvanizing may be as high as 50 euros/ton (US$57.7/ton). At present, European first-line steel mills are already preparing to raise prices. In short, they are optimistic about the majority of the post-market mentality. In the Commonwealth of Independent States, the export price of coiled coils at the beginning of June was $555/ton, which was $10/ton higher than before. Cold roll and plate are US$605/tonne and US$625/tonne (Bolti Baltic FOB), which is roughly the same as before.
Long products: market prices have mixed. In the European Union, the rebar price was US$590/tonne, which was unchanged from the beginning of the month. The rebar import price was US$585/tonne (CFR), up by US$5/ton from the beginning of the month. In Turkey, the rebar export prices fell slightly. Calculated according to actual weight, the rebar FOB quoted at about 550-560 US dollars / ton, about the same as the beginning of the month. The latest batch of 50,000 tons of rebar was sold to Singapore, FOB price was 540 US dollars / ton. Some market participants indicated that some rebar was sold to the United States at a price of USD 550/ton FOB. According to actual calculations, the current FOB reference price for rebar exports in Turkey is US$540-550/ton, which is slightly lower than the previous price decline of US$5-10/ton. At the same time, Turkey's wire rod export prices have increased, FOB quoted at 580-590 US dollars / ton, an increase of 15 US dollars / ton. In billets. Currently, CIS steel mills offer at US$515/tonne (fob Black Sea) and the latest transaction price is about US$515/ton, which is US$10/ton higher than before.
Simple test: According to the operating situation combined with the fundamental situation forecast, the recent European steel market may continue to rise or fall.
American steel market: Strong trend. The benchmark steel price index for the region, which was 137.8, remained unchanged on a week-on-week basis and was down 1.5% month-on-month (decreasing decline), which was a year-on-year increase of 25%.
In terms of flat products, market prices have risen steadily. In the United States, the prices of hot-rolled coils from mainstream steel mills were $1,000/ton, up $10/ton from the beginning of the month. Cold rolled coils were sold at a price of $1120/tonne, unchanged from previous levels. The standard slab price is 1050 USD/ton, which is also the same as the price at the beginning of the month. In late June, the import price of US hot-rolled coils was US$921/ton (US imports of CIF, including fees), which was US$22/ton higher than the beginning of the month. Import prices of cold-rolled coils were US$998/tonne (US imports of CIF, including handling fees), up US$11/tonne. The galvanized coil volume was US$1312/tonne and the thick plate was US$981/tonne (U.S. imports of CIF, including handling fees), which was the same as before. In Brazil, due to the introduction of the new quota system, Brazilian local steel mills are rushing to deal with US buyers. At present, the Brazilian FOB reference price for slab exports has dropped from the previous 590-600 U.S. dollars/ton to 580-595 U.S. dollars/ton. It is reported that many large slab producers in Brazil are competing for the same US customer base. Brazilian company orders for US buyers are sold within the above price range. Some market participants said that some Brazilian companies have been using the FOB offer price of US$600/ton, and some buyers are unwilling to mention such a high price. Informed sources disclosed. Brazilian steel mills have been paying great attention to the U.S. market because U.S. market prices are generally higher than other slab export destination countries. In addition, since Brazil’s steel products exported to the United States have already begun to implement new quota agreements, Brazilian exporters can export their quotas within the scope of the US’s import tariffs imposed on other countries by the United States in accordance with Article 232, which is a relatively high Competitiveness. In view of the exemption of steel tariffs, Brazil's slab producers have been increasing the amount of resources shipped to the United States. Another informed source revealed that at the current rate, the new quota will be used up by December. Some market participants stated that by the end of this year, there may be a gap in the supply of slabs, which may affect the price of steel in the United States.
Long products: The market price is basically stable. In the United States, the rebar price imported into major regions in June was US$750/tonne (CIF including commissions), wire rods US$678/tonne (CIF), and small-size steels 728 yuan/tonne (CIF), both at the end of last month. Flat.
In terms of trade relations: (1) On June 20, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced the preliminary countervailing sanctions for large-diameter welded pipes imported from China, India, South Korea, and Turkey, among which China’s compulsory respondent companies and other Chinese producers and exports The commercial subsidy rate was 198.49%. The U.S. Department of Commerce is expected to make a countervailing final ruling on this case on November 6, 2018; (2) On June 20, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced that 42 kinds of steel products from China, Japan, Sweden, Belgium, and Germany will be made available. (3) The Canadian government is prepared to impose tariff and quota controls on imports of steel from China and other countries in order to prevent global steel producers from flooding their products into Canada in order to circumvent U.S. tariffs.
Simple test: According to the operating situation combined with fundamentals, it is expected that the recent steel market in the Americas will continue its strong trend.
African steel market. In Egypt, although billet import prices have risen significantly, domestic rebar prices have remained stable. Currently, Egyptian domestic rebar reference prices remain at 12525-12528 Egyptian pounds/ton ($700/ton). Egypt's large rebar producer Ezz Steel, the factory price for rebar is still 12,528 Egyptian pounds / ton, including 14% value-added tax. Another major domestic rebar producer, Beshay Steel, supplied rebar at a price of 12,525 Egyptian pounds per ton on the same basis. At the same time, Egypt's billet import CFR reference price is 530-545 US dollars / ton, compared with the previous price of 530-538 US dollars / ton compared to the high price range slightly upward. The billet from the Commonwealth of Independent States was sold at 538-545 U.S. dollars per ton (CFR). According to analysts from the Egyptian market, the cost of electricity in Egypt will increase by 4% from July 1. It is therefore expected that the price of rebar will increase accordingly.